A lot of huffing and puffing about draconian Medicaid cuts in the OBBBA.  The OBBBA simply returns Medicaid spending increases to the trajectory they were on prior to COVID:

https://issuesinsights.com/2025/07/31/one-chart-to-kill-the-gutting-medicaid-lie-for-good/

One Chart To Kill The Medicaid Lies For Good

I & I Editorial Board

July 31, 2025

6 comments

Can anyone guess what is wrong with the following headline? “Democrats use new tactic to highlight Trump’s gutting of Medicaid: billboards in the rural U.S.”

That appeared in The Guardian newspaper over the weekend.

How about this one from NPR: “GOP governors stay silent amid plans to slash Medicaid spending in their states.”

Or this one from AP: “Rural hospitals brace for financial hits or even closure under Republicans’ $1 trillion Medicaid cut“

 

Or this one from NBC News: “Another report suggests Medicaid cuts could lead to thousands of deaths.”

Or countless others like these published in the wake of President Donald Trump’s signing the One Big Beautiful Bill?

What’s wrong with them all? They are all based on one big, fat lie. There are no cuts to Medicaid.

Look closely at the chart above.

It shows Medicaid spending levels starting in 2010. What do you see? Spending was increasing at a fairly steady rate until 2021, when Joe Biden massively expanded the program. Not only did spending jump upward, but Biden set Medicaid on a permanently higher spending track.

Under the OBBB, spending continues to climb, just more slowly.

But the lie about “slashing” and “gutting” is even bigger than that.

Look at the dashed line. That’s the trend line for Medicaid spending in the decade before Biden, extended out for the next decade.

What do you notice? First, you will notice the scale of Biden’s spending increase. But more interesting is the fact that Medicaid spending under the OBBB will continue to be higher than the trend line… until 2034. (Even we were surprised by this.)

The OBBD doesn’t cut Medicaid. It just (eventually) restores the program to its previous (unaffordable) trajectory.

But what about all those stories saying that rural hospitals will close, millions will lose coverage, the sun will stop shining? Well, what do you expect?

Everyone on the receiving end of Medicaid checks wants to exaggerate what is going on – they don’t like the idea of seeing their gravy train tampered with. Democrats will exaggerate any spending “cut” for political advantage. The press are too liberal and/or dumb to know they are being played.

This cycle needs to stop.

So, the next time you hear anyone talk about Medicaid “cuts,” hand out this chart.